Thanks for another great season of picking football games.  I’ll return in the fall with my handicapping and picks for both NFL Football and of course college football.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 over Arizona Cardinals

If this game had been played without the extra week off I might have been more tempted to go with a red hot, powerful offense led by Kurt Warner.  But, although it’s getting to be an obvious, trendy pick to be on the Steelers it’s who I like.  If this game were played in week 15 of the season the Steelers would have been nearly a 2 TD favorite and even if played mid-season Pitt would have been a 10 point favorite.  So there is some line value here as well.

The Steelers D is simply too good and the Cardinals have relied heavily on the home crowd emotion to play better (but still not great) defense against Atlanta and Philly.  Big Ben should have a big day passing and run up at least 4 TDs and against the physical Steeler defense the Cardinals passing game won’t ever get going.

My Super Bowl picks with complete analysis will be posted soon!

Philadelphia Eagles -4 over @Arizona
Tempting to take the home dog who have been excellent all season at home and get Boldin back.  But the Eagles are the FAR better team.  The Philly D will stop the Cardinals running game and pressure Warner all game long.

Baltimore Ravens +6 over @Pittsburgh
Steelers offensive line hasn’t been very good this season and despite some injuries the Ravens will get pressure on him and force into mistakes.  This one turns into a battle of FGs so taking the points is the pick.

The Ravens at Titans game is the perfect example of handicapping football is exceptionally challenging.  The Titans offense was FAR superior to the Ravens and they moved the ball down the field on long sustaining drives several times.  Then they self destructed.  This in addition to the self destruction in terms of penalty after penalty all game long.  The Titans threw an INT inside the 20, had a fumble inside the 10 and another fumble at the 1 yard line!  

Check out these numbers and tell me who the better team was in this game?

Total Yards:  Tenn 391   Balt 211
Passing Yards:  Tenn 116  Balt 50
Rushing Yards:  Tenn 275  Balt 161 
First Downs:  Tenn 21  Balt 9
Punts: Tenn 4 Baltimore 8 punts!
Time of Possession: Tenn 34:07   Balt 25:53 

All these stats dominated by the better team, the Tennessee Titans.  But it is often said that are 3 things you can’t handicap for - officiating, penalties and turnovers.

Anybody else (or everyone else expect the ref) see the play clock clearly at ZERO on the huge 3rd down conversion in the final 3 minutes of the game by Baltimore?

Tennessee had 12 penalties for 89 yards!

Tennessee fumbled 5 times  - losing 2 of them!  And as already noted BOTH inside the 10 ready to score!
And 1 INT - also a drive killer!

There will be handicappers that are patting themselves on the back for picking Baltimore.  Those with any self respect, the honest ones - they know they got very lucky tonight.  There is no question that the Titans were the better team, yet Baltimore won.  That’s why I have gray hair.  And that’s the way the game goes.